NFL WEEK 6 Bangs & Busts

We’re back after a one-week break, rested, recalibrated, and sitting with a winning record that speaks for itself. The early-season noise is gone, and we’ve seen who’s real, who’s fading, and where the mismatches live. Week 6 is loaded with exploitable spots and a few traps hiding in plain sight. Let’s break it down.

Quarterback

BANG: Matt Stafford @ Ravens
Projection: 19.9 pts (QB7)
Baltimore’s defense has been a mess . If not the worst in football, easily bottom three. They’ve been blown up on the ground and shredded through the air. That’s a perfect setup for Stafford and a Rams offense coming off a divisional gut-punch loss last week. Expect them to come out swinging. With Puka Nacua emerging as a volume machine and Davante Adams rediscovering rhythm in McVay’s offense, Stafford has every weapon he needs for a 300+ yard bounce-back performance.

BUST: Trevor Lawrence vs Seahawks
Projection: 18.0 pts (QB13)
Lawrence continues to flash moments of brilliance, but consistency has escaped Jacksonville. Now he gets a surging Seattle defense that’s forced turnovers in four straight games and is top five in red-zone stops. The Jaguars’ offensive line has struggled to protect him, and the Seahawks’ disguised zone coverages will bait him into tight-window throws. This feels like another frustrating, low-output fantasy outing.

Running Back

BANG: Jacory Croskey-Merritt vs Bears
Projection: 13.7 pts (RB25)
Croskey-Merritt has become one of the season’s best rookie surprises. The seventh-rounder turned lead back for a powerful Washington offense. He runs angry, hits holes decisively, and is earning full drive trust from the coaching staff. The matchup couldn’t be better: Chicago has already allowed multiple rookies to post career days against them. Expect 15+ touches, efficient production, and a strong chance at his first multi-score performance.

BUST: Derrick Henry vs Rams
Projection: 14.0 pts (RB23)
Right now, Henry looks like a shell of the back who once terrified defenses. He’s lost a step, and Baltimore’s blocking has been inconsistent at best. Against a Rams front that has allowed fewer than 4.0 yards per carry and thrives on penetration, Henry’s bruising style won’t find much room. Add in a Ravens roster that’s beat up across the board, and it’s hard to see Henry sniffing projection this week.

Wide Receiver

BANG: Michael Pittman Jr. vs Cardinals
Projection: 13.1 pts (WR28)
Pittman has been the model of reliability all year, and this matchup is tailor-made for another efficient outing. The Cardinals’ secondary ranks near the bottom in yards per target allowed, and their corners have struggled to contain big-bodied receivers who win over the middle. With the Colts’ offense humming and leaning into Pittman’s route tree, another 8+ catch game is well within reach.

BUST: Drake London vs Bills
Projection: 14.8 pts (WR20)
Buffalo’s defense thrives on taking away a team’s top option, and London is Atlanta’s by a mile. The Bills’ zone looks will force checkdowns and limit London’s vertical chances. With the Falcons still inconsistent through the air, this projects as one of those quiet 4-for-50 type games.

Tight End

BANG: Tyler Warren vs Cardinals
Projection: 10.8 pts (TE9)
Warren continues to prove he’s one of the best young tight ends in the league. Arizona has been gashed by tight ends all year, and Daniel Jones’ tendency to look for him on quick reads and red-zone leaks gives him a strong path to another top-5 finish. His connection with Jones has become one of Indy’s most reliable offensive engines.

BUST: David Njoku @ Steelers
Projection: 9.9 pts (TE14)
Pittsburgh has been brutal on tight ends, and Njoku’s situation doesn’t help. He’ll be catching passes from rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, and Mike Tomlin’s defenses have made a career out of confusing rookies, forcing them to play fast, make mistakes, and abandon reads. Expect Njoku to be blanketed by linebackers who close space fast. This is a fade in every format.

Defense / Special Teams

BANG: Colts D/ST vs Cardinals
Projection: 7.0 pts (DST7)
The Colts’ defense has quietly been one of the most physical and opportunistic units in the AFC. They get a battered Arizona team that’s coming off a demoralizing loss and could be without Kyler Murray, who remains questionable. That kind of uncertainty, paired with Indy’s ability to generate pressure from multiple fronts, sets them up for another strong fantasy showing.

BUST: Browns D/ST @ Steelers
Projection: 6.6 pts (DST11)
Cleveland’s defense is always talented, but this isn’t the matchup to trust them. Aaron Rodgers has the Steelers offense running smoothly, getting the ball out quick and keeping defenses off balance. Pittsburgh’s line has been stout in pass protection, and their red-zone efficiency has improved each week. Expect the Browns to come up empty in splash plays.

Kicker

BANG: Chris Boswell vs Browns
Projection: 8.3 pts (K5)
In a divisional battle that could feature stalled drives on both ends, Boswell is in the perfect spot to rack up points. The Steelers’ offense moves the ball efficiently enough to get into scoring range but often stalls in the low red zone . This is the perfect formula for a multi-field-goal afternoon.

BUST: Andre Szmyt @ Steelers
Projection: 7.1 pts (K13)
Cleveland’s offense has lacked rhythm and creativity, and this matchup won’t fix that. Against a physical Pittsburgh defense that thrives on disrupting timing, Szmyt’s scoring chances should be limited to the occasional long attempt. This is not the spot to chase volume.