NFL WEEK 4 BANGS & BUSTS

We’re rolling. After a 9–3 Week 3, the season record sits at 24–12 — and that’s not luck, that’s sharp calls hitting week after week. By now the noise is gone: teams have shown us who they are, defenses are revealing their cracks, and usage trends are undeniable. This is where we separate projections from reality and find the edges others miss. Let’s set the slate for Week 4 Bangs & Busts.

Quarterback

BANG: Caleb Williams @ Raiders
Projection: 19.6 pts (QB6)
Williams has grown into command of Chicago’s offense, and this matchup has breakout written all over it. The Raiders’ defense has struggled against quarterbacks who extend plays and push the ball vertically. With weapons like Moore and Odunze, Williams is set up to clear projection in what could turn into a high-scoring game.

BUST: C.J. Stroud vs. Titans
Projection: 17.4 pts (QB14)
Stroud has been solid, but this Houston offense has struggled to stay consistent week-to-week. Against a divisional opponent that plays disciplined defense and thrives in low-scoring games, the setup points to Stroud landing under projection.

Running Back

BANG: James Cook vs. Saints
Projection: 18.0 pts (RB7)
Cook is one of the safest volume plays right now, and the Bills are set up to control this game. With Buffalo’s offense humming, Cook should see steady touches throughout and has the skill set to convert that into RB1 production.

BUST: Jordan Mason @ Steelers
Projection: 13.9 pts (RB29)
Now the lead back for a battered Vikings team, Mason draws a brutal matchup. Even though Aaron Jones is out, giving Mason more volume, Pittsburgh’s front has the advantage here. Minnesota has struggled to move the ball, and it starts with them being stuffed at the line. Without explosive plays or red-zone consistency, Mason is a fade.

Wide Receiver

BANG: Rome Odunze @ Raiders
Projection: 15.4 pts (WR24)
Odunze has quickly become one of Williams’ most trusted weapons, and the matchup leans his way. Vegas doesn’t have the personnel to hold up against size-speed receivers on the outside, and Odunze has the ability to turn target volume into chunk gains. He projects as a strong WR2 with upside.

BUST: George Pickens vs. Packers
Projection: 14.5 pts (WR27)
Now with Dallas, Pickens has flashed, but this isn’t the week to expect him to hit. With CeeDee Lamb banged up, Green Bay can key on Pickens, and their secondary has the physicality to disrupt him at the catch point. Combine that with the emotional edge of Micah Parsons’ revenge game, and this Cowboys offense could sputter.

Tight End

BANG: Tyler Warren @ Rams
Projection: 11.9 pts (TE7)
Warren has emerged as a consistent part of the Colts’ passing game. Against a Rams defense that pressures the quarterback, Daniel Jones should be leaning on Warren as his quick-read outlet. That’s a recipe for targets and red-zone looks, giving him top-5 potential at the position.

BUST: T.J. Hockenson @ Steelers
Projection: 10.1 pts (TE10)
Hockenson’s usage is steady, but Pittsburgh defends tight ends well, forcing shorter routes and limiting efficiency. Without big-play or touchdown upside, this shapes up as more of a floor game, keeping him under projection.

Defense / Special Teams

BANG: Bills D/ST vs. Saints
Projection: 7.4 pts (DST5)
Buffalo’s defense has found its stride, and the Saints continue to give the ball away at a high rate. The Bills’ pass rush and opportunistic secondary are well-positioned to deliver turnovers and short fields. This unit has double-digit potential.

BUST: Panthers D/ST @ Patriots
Projection: 5.7 pts (DST17)
Carolina is coming off a hot week, and the matchup against New England looks enticing after the Patriots turned it over five times. But back-to-back turnover-heavy games are unlikely, and I expect New England to bounce back at home with a sharper offensive showing. That makes the Panthers a risky play.

Kicker

BANG: Jason Myers @ Cardinals
Projection: 7.8 pts (K9)
Seattle’s offense has moved the ball well but hasn’t always finished drives. That sets Myers up for multiple field-goal attempts in a favorable matchup against Arizona. He’s a safe top-10 kicker with top-5 upside this week.

BUST: Daniel Carlson vs. Bears
Projection: 7.8 pts (K10)
Carlson remains reliable, but the Raiders’ offense hasn’t generated consistent red-zone trips. Against a Bears defense that forces long drives, opportunities could be limited. He’s unlikely to hit projection in this spot.