NFL Week 3 Bangs & Busts

Through two weeks we sit at 15–9 overall, hitting on both kickers and tight ends in Week 2 while splitting RBs, WRs, and defenses, but whiffing on both QB calls. That leaves us hungry to sharpen up and deliver our best slate yet. With projections tightening and usage trends becoming clearer, here are my Bangs & Busts for Week 3.

Quarterback

BANG: Patrick Mahomes @ Giants
Projection: 19.9 pts (QB5)
For the first time in his career, Mahomes has started 0–2, and the Chiefs need him to breathe life back into a squad that fell just one game short of a three-peat last year. The spot couldn’t be better: the Giants just surrendered 40 points to Dallas, and their defense looks vulnerable across the board. This is the perfect get-right game for Mahomes, and I expect Kansas City’s offense to finally click and beat projection.

BUST: Russell Wilson vs. Chiefs
Projection: 16.3 pts (QB17)
Wilson went off last week in a wild shootout against Dallas, but the Giants still came up short. That performance feels due for regression and Kansas City’s defense is much stronger than what he faced against the Cowboys. The Chiefs generate pressure and cover deep better, so this matchup should give us a more accurate picture of where Russ is at. I expect him to fall short of projection.

Running Back

BANG: James Cook vs. Dolphins
Projection: 17.2 pts (RB8)
Miami still hasn’t established a defensive identity, and Buffalo is positioned to control this game start to finish. That means a steady diet of James Cook, who should see high volume on the ground as the Bills keep the clock moving. With 20+ touches on the table, Cook feels like a safe bet to smash past projection.

BUST: Alvin Kamara @ Seahawks
Projection: 15.3 pts (RB15)
The Saints look like they will be the last team in the league to notch a win, and Seattle knows Kamara is still their engine. Expect the Seahawks to key on him and crowd the box, forcing New Orleans to win elsewhere. That caps Kamara’s upside and leaves him closer to a middling RB2 this week.

Wide Receiver

BANG: Tyreek Hill @ Bills
Projection: 14.1 pts (WR18)
Buffalo’s secondary has been leaky against speed, and Hill is the ultimate equalizer. Miami will lean on him to create explosive plays in a game where they’ll need juice to keep up. Even with a modest projection, Tyreek’s ceiling is massive — he can beat it on one play.

BUST: Calvin Ridley vs. Colts
Projection: 13.0 pts (WR30)
Rookie QB Cam Ward has shown clear preferences elsewhere in the Titans’ offense, and Ridley hasn’t been his go-to option. Add in a matchup that looks ugly for Tennessee overall, and Ridley doesn’t carry the kind of upside you want. He’s a fade for me in Week 3.

Tight End

BANG: Jake Ferguson @ Bears
Projection: 11.4 pts (TE8)
Chicago has already been carved up by tight ends through two weeks, and Ferguson is firmly embedded as Dak Prescott’s red-zone option. The matchup screams touchdown equity, and that puts him in the top-5 conversation at the position this week.

BUST: Juwan Johnson @ Seahawks
Projection: 10.6 pts (TE13)
Johnson’s volume has been there, but Seattle has the personnel to take away seam work and force throws outside. Even with targets, I expect a quiet game here as the Saints’ tough matchup drags down his efficiency.

Defense / Special Teams

BANG: Chiefs D/ST @ Giants
Projection: 6.8 pts (DST9)
Kansas City has been opportunistic on defense all season, and now they get a Giants offense. With Mahomes pushing the pace, the Chiefs’ defense will be in a prime position to tee off on mistakes and short fields.

BUST: Patriots D/ST vs. Steelers
Projection: 5.7 pts (DST18)
After a rough outing in Week 2, expect the Steelers to come out firing, and Aaron Rodgers will be motivated to pick apart this average Patriots defense. New England doesn’t have the horses to hold up if Pittsburgh executes, making this a unit to avoid in Week 3.

Kicker

BANG: Brandon Aubrey @ Bears
Projection: 8.7 pts (K3)
Dallas continues to stall in the high red zone, and Aubrey’s leg has been automatic. On the road in Chicago, he’s in position for multiple makes again, and a top-3 finish is well within reach.

BUST: Andy Borregales vs. Steelers
Projection: 7.8 pts (K14)
New England’s offense isn’t sustaining drives, and against a Steelers defense ready to rebound, Borregales is unlikely to see enough volume to clear projection. Fade in Week 3.