NFL Week 1 Bangs & Busts

Week 1 is finally here. Draft season is over; now it’s about matchups, usage, and knowing when to trust projections and when to fade them. ESPN’s numbers give us a baseline, but the edge comes from context: which defenses funnel production, who owns red-zone work, and where game scripts will tilt volume. These are my Week 1 Bangs & Busts.

Quarterback

BANG: Drake Maye vs. Raiders

Projection: 18.0 pts (QB14)
Maye is technically outside the top-10, but I’m pushing him inside it. He’s got the legs (projected 30+ rushing yards) to pad the floor, and the Raiders allowed the 6th-most QB rushing yards last season. With Vrabel leaning on RPO/boot action and Diggs opening up defenses, Maye has a real shot to finish top-8 at the position in Week 1.

BUST: Bo Nix vs. Titans

Projection: 18.5 pts (QB12)
This projection feels inflated. Nix likes rhythm throws, quick checkdowns, and ball security. The Titans allowed the 6th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks last season, thanks to disciplined coverage that forces throws outside and squeezes the red zone. Nix is more likely to hand off near the stripe than take aggressive shots, which caps his touchdown upside. Now I don’t think Nix will play badly, but I do see him falling under that 18 point mark despite the upside of his running capability.

Running Back

BANG: Chuba Hubbard at Jaguars

Projection: 15.4 pts (RB20)
This projection undersells his role. Jacksonville gave up the 5th-most receptions to RBs last season, and Hubbard averaged 3.6 targets down the stretch. Add 12–14 carries and he’s staring at 15+ touches with a strong receiving floor. If Carolina plays from behind, Hubbard could easily flirt with top-15 RB numbers, not just RB2/FLEX.

BUST: Jahmyr Gibbs at Packers

Projection: 18.4 pts (RB6)
This is too rich for the spot. Green Bay allowed the fewest RB receptions in the NFC, and Gibbs’ fantasy ceiling comes from splash plays + passing volume. Inside the 5, Montgomery still dominated (62% of Detroit’s red-zone carries in 2024). Unless Gibbs rips off a long TD, I see him closer to 15 points, not the elite RB1 line he’s projected for.

Wide Receiver

BANG: Emeka Egbuka vs. Falcons

Projection: 13.5 pts (WR35)
This is the rookie I’m circling in Week 1. With Chris Godwin out, Egbuka slides into a high-volume role opposite Mike Evans in what should be one of the NFC’s more aggressive passing attacks. Atlanta gave up the second-most receiving touchdowns in 2024, and they still haven’t shown they can consistently get to the quarterback. That means Baker Mayfield should have time to sling it, and Egbuka projects to see 7–9 targets right out of the gate. ESPN has him outside the top-30, but in this spot I see him closer to 15–16 points with legit top-20 WR upside.

BUST: Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs. 49ers

Projection: 14.7 pts (WR31)
JSN is Seattle’s WR1 now with Cooper Kupp alongside him, and Sam Darnold running Klint Kubiak’s Shanahan-style offense. The 49ers were stingy to WRs last season (allowed 2,157 yards and 17 WR TDs), keeping perimeter production in check and forcing short throws. With Kupp siphoning high-leverage third-down/red-zone looks and Seattle still settling target pecking order, I’ve got him closer to 10–11 points (floor WR3) until we see Darnold’s distribution shake out.

Tight End

BANG: Tyler Warren vs. Dolphins

Projection: 9.9 pts (TE14)
Warren is outside starter range, but he’s my favorite stream. He’s locked in as Indy’s TE1, and Daniel Jones targeted his TEs on 24% of throws last year (7th-highest). Miami blitzes heavily, which leaves seams open, and that’s exactly where Warren works. One seam shot and one red-zone leak, and he smashes past his projection into top-8 TE territory.

BUST: Evan Engram vs. Titans

Projection: 9.9 pts (TE8)
The projections say he’s safe, but the matchup doesn’t. Tennessee allowed the fewest fantasy points to TEs in 2024 and forces passes outside. Engram will get targets, but the red-zone equity isn’t there. This looks like a 4-for-40 floor game instead of the TE1 line his projection suggests.

Defense / Special Teams

BANG: Cardinals D/ST at Saints

Projection: 7.0 pts (DST8)
Arizona’s front is upgraded, and they get Spencer Rattler to start the season with a bang. The Saints gave up the 4th-most sacks last year, and this O-line hasn’t improved much. I’d project closer to double digits, with legit top-5 upside for streamers.

BUST: Jets D/ST vs. Steelers

Projection: 6.4 pts (DST12)
Tempting unit, bad spot. Rodgers in a revenge game and Arthur Smith calling plays means heavy run, quick play-action, and throwaways. Which usually means a lot fewer sacks and picks. The Steelers were among the bottom 5 in giveaways last year. Jets are a season-long hold, but this is a capped week with low splash-play potential.

Kicker

BANG: Cam Little vs. Panthers

Projection: 8.3 pts (K5)
Little checks every box: home favorite, mid-40s total, offense that moves the ball but stalls near the red zone. Add his leg, which kicked a 70-yard field goal in the preseason, and I would say he should be a lock for a top-3 upside this week.

BUST: Joey Slye (Titans) at Broncos

Projection: 7.0 pts (K16)
This one’s easy. Titans carry the lowest implied team total (~17 points), which kills kicker volume. Few XP chances, thin FG attempts, and Denver was top-3 against kickers last year. Slye is unstartable until Tennessee proves it can move the ball consistently.